The HEAD Game: High-Efficiency Analytic Decision Making and the Art of Solving Complex Problems Quickly by Philip Mudd

Author:Philip Mudd [Mudd, Philip]
Language: eng
Format: epub, mobi
Publisher: Liveright
Published: 2015-04-05T22:00:00+00:00

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* Philip Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment (pub info TK), 20–21.

† “Intelligence Estimates on Iran, in Senior Review Panel Report on Intelligence Judgments Preceding Significant Historical Failures: The Hazards of Single-Outcome Forecasting,” NIC 9079-83/2, 6 January 1984.

‡ “Estimative,” in the US Intelligence Community, refers to formal intelligence assessments prepared by analysts from various US intelligence agencies, such as the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Central Intelligence Agency, and the Bureau of Intelligence and Research at the Department of State. Most intelligence reports are prepared by individual agencies rather than the interagency groups that prepare Estimates (known formally as National Intelligence Estimates, or NIEs).

§ Dan Gardner, Future Babble: Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best (pub info TK), 87–88.

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